On the 22nd, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council met with overseas representatives attending the 2010 China Development Forum. He said that China will never pursue a trade surplus, but instead must find ways to expand imports. Maintaining the basic balance of the balance of payments is the direction of our long-term efforts. Last year, China’s economic growth was mainly due to domestic demand, and the trade surplus was gradually reduced. By the beginning of March this year, there had been a deficit.
Earlier, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said that China's trade surplus in 2009 fell by 34% compared with 2008, and fell by 50% in the first two months of this year. It is expected that there may be a trade deficit in March. Experts pointed out that if there is a deficit in March, it will be the first monthly deficit in China since April 2004.
Experts in commodity imports and prices have risen. Experts pointed out that China’s foreign trade has experienced a deficit and China’s imports have increased significantly in recent months, especially in terms of imports of bulk commodities and rising prices.
The data shows that in the first two months of this year, the import volume and price of major bulk commodities in China have increased to varying degrees, and the average import price has generally rebounded significantly. Among them, iron ore imports were 96.07 million tons, up 21%, the average import price was 93 US dollars per ton, up 16.6%; soybean imports were 7.03 million tons, up 11.7%, and the average import price was 462.6 US dollars per ton, up 16.6%. In addition, imported mechanical and electrical products reached 81.97 billion US dollars, an increase of 45.8%, including 94,000 imported cars, an increase of 1.1 times.
Since the import is mainly for some bulk commodities, Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, said that these have little to do with the export of processing trade, so it is impossible to infer from the large import volume that the future export situation will further improve.
“Products such as iron ore, copper, coal and petroleum mainly reflect the strong demand for domestic investment demand and durable consumer goods. The demand for iron ore is mainly related to infrastructure construction. Coal is mainly related to the strong demand for steel, and oil demand is mainly There is a relationship between automobile consumption and so on." Lu political commissar said.
With the development of China's domestic demand market, some experts believe that China's foreign trade surplus will continue to narrow. Yao Jian, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, predicts that there will be a trade deficit in individual months this year, which is also China’s contribution to the recovery of the world economy.
The reason for pressure on the renminbi is untenable for a while. The issue of the RMB exchange rate has become a hot spot in Sino-US relations. Some US lawmakers recently called for China to be listed as a "currency manipulator", and it has pushed the issue of the RMB exchange rate to the forefront. Relevant experts believe that with the trade deficit in China, the argument that the undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate has led to an imbalance in the international economy is even more untenable.
Yao Jian believes that the RMB exchange rate issue is not the root cause of China's surplus and the US's deficit, nor is it the root cause of the imbalance in the international economy. "If we use some problems in the US economy or the international economy as an excuse to attribute the economic imbalance to the RMB exchange rate issue, it is wrong to find the wrong prescription." Yao Jian said.
Minister of Commerce Chen Deming recently pointed out that theory and practice have proved that the appreciation of a country's local currency has a very limited effect on regulating trade. To suppress the appreciation of a country's currency is an irrational choice that is not good for each other. The RMB exchange rate does not exist in the United States. Underestimation and manipulation.
Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan also said in an interview with the media that any appreciation of the renminbi may lead to the bankruptcy of exporters, which China cannot afford. China is willing to discuss the currency issue with the United States, and there is no problem between China and the United States. But by pressure to ask us to do something, this is not in line with the way Chinese culture is getting along.
According to the plan, Zhongshan will lead a delegation to the United States from March 24th to 26th. During the visit, Zhong Shan will hold talks with the responsible persons of the US Department of Commerce, the International Trade Commission, the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, etc., and meet with some US conference members to communicate on trade balance, trade frictions and other trade-related issues. , consultations and negotiations.